报 告 人：徐梦怿（美国普渡大学 教授）
报告题目：Functional disability with systematic trends and uncertainty: a comparison between China and the US
报告摘要：China and the US are two contrasting countries in terms of functional disability and long-term care. China is experiencing declining family support for long-term care and developing private long-term care insurance. The US has a more developed public aged care system and private long-term care insurance market than China. Changes in the demand for long-term care are driven by the levels, trends and uncertainty in mortality and functional disability. To understand the future potential demand for long-term care, we compare mortality and functional disability experiences in China and the US, using a multi-state latent factor intensity model with time trends and systematic uncertainty in transition rates. We estimate the model with the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data. The estimation results show that if trends continue, both countries will experience longevity improvement with morbidity compression and a declining proportion of the older population with functional disability. Although the elderly Chinese have a shorter estimated life expectancy, they are expected to spend a smaller proportion of their future lifetime functionally disabled than the elderly Americans. Systematic uncertainty is shown to be significant in future trends in disability rates and our model estimates higher uncertainty in trends for the Chinese elderly, especially for urban residents.
报告人简介：Mengyi Xu is an Professor in the Department of Statistics and the Department of Mathematics at Purdue University. She is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia. She obtained her Ph.D. from the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. Her research interests focus on tackling the financial and economic challenges of population aging. Her research topics include longevity and disability risk modeling, innovations in retirement income products, and pension fund management.